Security Overview for Pakistan

Terrorism is a major concern in Pakistan, and there are fears that a slow governmental response to the recent massive flood may be a boon for terrorist recruitment. It is far too early to know if that is so, but already suicide bombings are especially frequent in the rural areas of the North-West Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Increasingly, terrorist activity occurs in major cities. Such bombings have generally targeted security personnel, but many have also caused significant civilian casualties. Karachi remains a hotbed of terrorist activity, and criminal and political/sectarian violence. Such incidents have included bombings, rocket attacks and assassinations of religious leaders.

Religious or political leaders regularly blame Westernern governments for fomenting sectarian violence, so attacks on Westerners is possible; most victims of violence are locals. Times of high political tension, particulalry related to international events, often lead to large protests against Western embassies and consulates.

Ethnic, political and economic tensions are common; riots may erupt in cities without warning. Demonstrations and rallies are usually associated with political issues, but may also be directed against Western interests and countries.

Violent and petty crime rates - spurred by high unemployment and an inefficient police force - are very high in Lahore and Islamabad, and particularly in Karachi. Use caution in crowded public areas such as shopping centers. Do not travel alone, especially on foot. Foreigners should avoid visiting back streets and bazaars in major cities.

Rural overland travel is inadvisable at all times, especially after dark. Armed highway bandits operate in many regions. National security forces maintain only a limited presence in the countryside. Local police are frequently corrupt.

Strongly consider avoiding all means of public transportation. A private car with a professional, local driver is the most secure method of transportation and should be used even for the shortest of trips. Limit travel to daylight hours and leave an itinerary with a trusted associate.

Avoid traveling to Balochistan, border areas (except official crossings), Kashmir, northern areas of the country (including the North-West Frontier Province and Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Agencies), and rural areas of Sindh Province. The tribal areas near the Afghanistan border are extremely dangerous due to periodic military operations, inter-tribal violence and the presence of Al-Qaeda-affiliated militants. Foreigners often need official permission from the Pakistani government to enter these regions.

India and Pakistan maintain a ceasefire along the Line of Control separating Pakistani and Indian-administered Kashmir. Relations can deteriorate unexpectedly, however, following major political or security events, such as the 2008 Mumbai attacks in which Pakistani nationals were implicated.

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How we determine a country's overall security rating

Each country's current overall risk rating is determined by considering categorical assessments in kidnapping, crime, security services, civil unrest, terrorism and geopolitical stability.

Minimal Threat

Most countries in this category have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with a low rate of unemployment. These countries have overall low rates of crime. Violent crime is almost non-existent. Petty crimes do occur, but are usually limited to petty theft and pick pocketing. Police and military services are trained and trustworthy, but may lack investigative and crime fighting equipment and skills. Strikes and demonstrations are rare and if they occur are usually well planned and managed and rarely spurn violent incidents. There are no known insurgent or terrorist groups.

Low Threat

Most countries in this category will have a stable political infrastructure and economic system with some unemployment. These countries have low crime rates. Violent crimes are rare and usually involve associated persons. Petty crimes such as theft and pick pocketing are a concern and travelers may be directly targeted. Risks can usually be mitigated with simple security measures. Police and military services are well trained and trustworthy but may lack adequate investigative equipment. Incidents of civil unrest such as strikes and demonstrations may disrupt daily life, but are usually non-violent and well coordinated. These countries may experience rare instances of domestic terrorist activity but are not threatened by international terrorism. Anti-government groups may be present but have little or no impact.

Moderate Threat

Most countries in this category will have a somewhat stable political infrastructure and economic system but unemployment and rising inflation cause some instability. These countries have moderate levels of crime. Violent crimes such as sexual assault and murder occur, but few are random incidents. Petty crimes, especially theft or destruction of unattended property, are common. Incidents of armed assault also occur. More threatening crimes are usually limited to urban areas or certain parts of the country. Police and military services may suffer from corruption and lack of training, but are generally adequate for investigations. Strikes and demonstrations can disrupt daily life and may easily spur violence. This country may have a variety of anti-government and domestic terrorist groups that are organized and outspoken against the government and may conduct incidents of violence. Small cells of international terrorist organizations exist but incidents of terrorism are not common.

High Threat

Most countries in the category have unstable political infrastructure and economic system with high rates of unemployment and inflation. Violent and petty crimes are common in most areas and random acts of violence do occur. Some areas may have a general state of lawlessness. Traveling alone, especially at night, should be avoided. There will be a large infiltration of arms in the population. Police and military services lack training and equipment. Both institutions are prone to corruption. Strikes and demonstrations are common and usually violent. Domestic terrorist and insurgent groups are active and well organized. They conduct bombings and other violent acts against government, local and international interests. International terrorist groups exist and may conduct activities within the country and abroad. The country may be involved in cross border warfare.

Extreme Threat

Most countries in this category lack a political infrastructure with any democratic premise and have a high rate of corruption. The economy is unstable with a high rate of unemployment. There is a very high rate of violent and petty crime. A general state of lawlessness exists in most urban and remote areas. Overland travel through the country must be avoided. Many domestic terrorist or rebel groups exist and are frequently active; areas of the country may be controlled by rebel factions. International terrorist operations may be well organized and active. Anti- government actions and large demonstrations are common and violent. Cross border and internal warfare occur.